Coal Plateaus, 24/7 Solar & Rising AI Power Demand
Energy, resources, and infrastructure are being reshaped by powerful structural shifts. From falling battery costs and changing oil demand to coal’s slow plateau and the explosive growth of AI-driven power use, the global energy system is entering a new phase defined by concentration, scale, and electrification. Together, these developments highlight how markets are responding to cost curves, geopolitical pressure, and rapidly rising electricity demand.
⚫ Global Coal Demand Peaks, Then Slowly Turns
Global coal demand is set to reach around 8.85 billion tonnes this year, but the outlook is beginning to diverge by region. While some emerging markets continue to rely on coal for power and industry, competition from renewables, natural gas, and nuclear is steadily intensifying. By 2030, global demand is forecast to edge down as cleaner and more flexible power sources take market share, especially in electricity generation.
🔋 Batteries Make 24/7 Solar an Economic Reality
Battery costs have fallen so sharply that around-the-clock solar power is now economically viable. Average battery prices dropped by roughly 40% in 2024, with early signs pointing to another steep decline in 2025. Pairing solar with sufficient storage to deliver power overnight now costs about $76/MWh all-in, making dispatchable solar competitive with other forms of firm generation across many markets.
🛢️ Who Really Drives Global Oil Demand?
Global oil consumption now sits at around 103 million barrels per day, but demand is highly concentrated. The US (19.1%) and China (16.5%) alone account for 36% of global oil use, forming the system’s base load. Add India, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, and just five countries dominate consumption. In total, the top 10 oil consumers account for 62% of global demand, meaning a small group effectively drives the entire market.
📊 Global Trade Is Rearranging, Not Reversing
As pressure mounts on US–China trade, companies are increasingly exploring alternative supply chains rather than full decoupling. New analysis introduces a “rearrangement ratio” to measure how difficult it is to shift sourcing between countries. The data shows global connections are being reshuffled, not dismantled, with firms balancing resilience, cost, and geopolitical risk.
🏢 Amazon’s $11bn AI Data Centre Pushes Infrastructure Limits
Amazon is building a $11 billion AI-focused data centre campus in St. Joseph County, Indiana, highlighting the scale of power and water demands tied to AI growth. The site is expected to consume 2.2 GW of electricity—enough to power roughly 1 million homes—and around 300 million gallons of water per year. Projects like this are rapidly becoming major drivers of local grid upgrades and infrastructure planning.