Heading into COP30: What’s at Stake in Belém
World leaders gathered in Belém, Brazil, on 6–7 November for the World Leaders Climate Action Summit — a two-day curtain-raiser to COP30, which officially runs from 10 to 21 November 2025. The event brought together heads of state, ministers, and international organizations to address the growing urgency of climate change and to reaffirm national commitments ahead of the main negotiations.
Set against the backdrop of the Amazon rainforest, COP30 marks a crucial moment in global climate diplomacy, with host country Brazil positioning the event as “the COP of the Amazon.” The focus is on linking nature protection with climate ambition and accelerating the transition to net-zero emissions.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called on all major emitters to present credible plans to cut emissions this decade and to mobilise US $1.3 trillion annually in climate finance by 2035, while doubling adaptation funding to US $40 billion this year. “The hard truth is that the world has failed to ensure global warming remains below 1.5°C,” Guterres warned. “We need a paradigm shift to limit a temporary overshoot’s magnitude and duration — and quickly drive it down.”
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer acknowledged the waning political will surrounding climate action, warning that what was once a point of unity “internationally and in the UK” had fractured. “Today, sadly, that consensus is gone,” he said — a sentiment that captures the challenge facing negotiators in Belém as they try to rebuild trust and momentum behind global climate goals.
What’s on the Table?
Progress at COP30 will be judged on several fronts: updated and more ambitious national climate plans (NDCs), stronger systems for financing adaptation and loss and damage, and deeper integration of private-sector and sub-national climate action. Brazilian negotiators have emphasised the need for implementation over rhetoric, signalling that talk of the 1.5°C and 2°C goals must now give way to measurable steps.
Nature-based solutions will also dominate. With the rainforest as its backdrop, Belém is becoming the centrepiece for forest conservation and large-scale forest finance commitments. But Brazil is quick to issue a caveat: this cannot become a simplistic carbon-credit grab-bag. “If you change your economy as a whole, fine — if it’s just credits, you’re not changing your economy,” said summit lead Ana Toni.
On the corporate and city front, COP30 is also exploring new models of climate commitment. Talks have begun on what some are calling a “Global NDC” — a multilevel climate mechanism that would fold in regional governments, cities, and the private sector alongside national pledges.
Finally, at the technology and industrial frontier, expect discussions around scaling up sustainable aviation fuels, hydrogen, and other low-carbon pathways for heavy industry. A leaked draft suggests negotiators may push for a commitment to quadruple use of sustainable fuels by 2034.
Why It Matters
The global stocktake under the Paris Agreement found that humanity remains off track to limit warming to 1.5°C — yet many major emitters have still not submitted updated NDCs. COP30 will be one of the few moments this year when all parties re-engage in climate diplomacy with the world’s attention focused squarely on them.
Successful outcomes would include a clear roadmap to greater ambition, robust mechanisms for forest and nature-based finance, and stronger involvement from cities, regions, and companies. Failure to deliver could weaken the entire multilateral climate process, threatening the trust at the heart of global cooperation.
Rules, Risks and Renewal
Belém, perched at the gateway to the Amazon, offers symbolism — but also underscores tension. Brazil’s dual role as host and oil exporter adds complexity to the narrative. Infrastructure for the summit has itself sparked criticism from local groups and NGOs. Meanwhile, the absence of several major emitters makes consensus harder to achieve.
But in that difficulty lies opportunity: if countries can bridge political divides and offer concrete deliverables, COP30 could mark a turning point. Whether it becomes a milestone or a missed chance will depend less on attendance and more on substance. With finance, forests, and industry all on the agenda, the world will be watching to see whether the rhetoric of climate ambition finally translates into real-world action.