IAEA Lifts Nuclear Growth Outlook Again as Countries Seek Firm Power for a High-Demand Future
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised its long-term nuclear power projections for the fifth consecutive year, reflecting renewed global interest in firm, low-carbon electricity as demand accelerates and more countries look to balance rapid renewable growth with reliable baseload supply.
Announced by Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, the agency’s latest Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates to 2050 shows its strongest outlook yet. In the high-case scenario, global nuclear operating capacity is expected to more than double by mid-century—reaching 2.6 times today’s level—driven by new large-scale plants and a growing pipeline of small modular reactors (SMRs). By contrast, even the low-case scenario shows a 50% increase over 2024 levels.
At the end of 2024, the world operated 417 reactors with a combined capacity of 377 GW(e). Under the IAEA’s high case, this could rise to 992 GW(e) by 2050, with SMRs accounting for nearly a quarter of all new additions. In the low case, capacity still climbs to 561 GW(e), with SMRs playing a smaller but notable role.
This marks a continued shift in sentiment. After a decade of cautious projections following Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011, the IAEA made its first upward revision in 2021. Since then, its high-case estimate has risen by 25%, reflecting policy changes, new financing models, and a broader acceptance that decarbonisation requires a more diversified energy mix.
A demand-driven revival
The stronger outlook comes as electricity systems globally undergo rapid transformation. Electrification—from vehicles to heating to industry—is accelerating, while digitalisation and AI-driven data centre growth are pushing demand higher than many countries had forecast even a few years ago. This combination is increasing the need for round-the-clock, zero-carbon generation that can complement solar, wind, and hydropower.
In 2024, fossil fuels still dominated the global electricity mix, supplying 59.1%. Coal alone accounted for 34.3%, while natural gas contributed 22%. Renewables supplied 32% overall—led by hydropower at 14.3%, followed by wind at 8.1% and solar at 6.9%. Nuclear provided 8.6% of global electricity, with major output from the United States, China, France, and Russia.
As countries seek deeper emissions cuts and more secure supply chains, many governments are viewing nuclear as a practical partner to renewables rather than a competitor—capable of stabilising grids, reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels, and providing energy security in a more uncertain geopolitical landscape.
More countries entering the mix
Beyond traditional nuclear nations, interest is rising among newcomers. A growing list of countries in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia are exploring or advancing first-time nuclear programmes, often centred on SMRs, which promise smaller footprints, modular construction, and potentially easier integration into weaker grids.
Meanwhile, existing nuclear countries are extending reactor lifetimes, restarting previously closed units, or writing new policies that support long-term nuclear operation. These moves all feed into the IAEA’s strengthened projections.
A shifting global consensus
While challenges remain—financing, regulatory harmonisation, supply chain expansion, and public acceptance—the IAEA’s consecutive upward revisions suggest a notable shift in how governments are planning their future power systems. With electricity consumption expected to grow sharply and clean-energy targets becoming more urgent, nuclear’s combination of low-carbon generation, grid stability, and long asset lifetimes is once again being treated as a strategic resource.
If current momentum holds, nuclear power is set to play a larger role in meeting both energy security and climate goals in the decades ahead—complementing the rapid rise of renewables in a world that will need far more clean electricity than it produces today.